The competition for school admissions might become softer if the recent prediction the number of senior high school graduates in America is going on decline proves to be true. The Knocking in the College Door report from the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education says that there will be slightly fewer students graduating high school in the next decade, but the ranks of graduates will end up more racially and ethnically diverse.
According towards the report released last week, there had been a steady growth in the amount of students earning high school diplomas annually in excess of 10 years using the numbers peaking in 2011. Since then there\’s been a slight decline that the report predicts will continue for at least another 10 or 11 years.
That means that colleges will need to work harder to help keep enrollment numbers at the same level by assigning more resources to recruitment and using innovative methods to identify and pursue promising potential applicants.
The effect will be uneven across the country. The Northeast and Midwest will experience the largest declines, with smaller ones in the western world and some growth in the South, specifically in Texas and Georgia, the research found. In California, the ranks of senior high school graduates peaked 2 yrs ago at 430,292 and it is expected to be 408,467 in 2012-13. Possibly easing enrollment pressures at state universites and colleges, a general decline will follow to a low of 384,600 projected in 2019-2020. Their state will then see some modest growth for the following five years but the ranks of their new high school graduates will stay well below the peak.
Besides the alterations in the numbers of graduates, another significant shift come in demographics from the graduating classes. Authors from the study predict that close to half of all students getting a senior high school diploma by the end of the decade is going to be non-white — close to 7% growth over 2009 numbers. The biggest increase will be in the number of Latino students, with anticipated 41% growth. The number of white students is expected to decline by 12% as the number of black students will decline by 9% within the same period.
Colleges and universities should review their recruitment, educational funding and student support policies for any more ethnically diverse future, the report suggested. Higher education must \”address the fact that systems, policies and practices created for an earlier, more racially/ethnically homogenous era will not suffice.\”